Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

The time-dependent rearrangement of the epithelial basement membrane in human skin wounds

In 62 human skin wounds (surgical wounds, stab wounds and lacerations after surgical treatment) we analyzed the immunohistochemical localization of collagen IV in the epithelial basement membrane. In 27 of these wounds the distribution of collagen VII, which represents a specific component of the basement membrane of stratified epithelia, was also analyzed. We were able to demonstrate a virtually identical co-distribution of both collagen IV and VII in the wound area with no significant time-dependent differences in the appearance of both collagen types. Fragments of the epithelial basement membrane could be detected in the wound area from as early as 4 days after wounding and after 8 days a complete restitution of the epithelial basement membrane was observed. In all cases with a wound age of more than 21 days the basement membrane was completely reformed over the former lesional area. The period between 8 and 21 days after wounding was characterized by a wide variability ranging from complete restitution to deposition of basement membrane fragments or total lack of the epidermal basement membrane

Understanding single-station ground motion variability and uncertainty (sigma) – Lessons learnt from EUROSEISTEST

Accelerometric data from the well-studied valley EUROSEISTEST are used to investigate ground motion uncertainty and variability. We define a simple local ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) and investigate changes in standard deviation (σ) and its components, the between-event variability (τ) and within-event variability (φ). Improving seismological metadata significantly reduces τ (30-50%), which in turn reduces the total σ. Improving site information reduces the systematic site-to-site variability, φS2S (20-30%), in turn reducing φ, and ultimately, σ. Our values of standard deviations are lower than global values from literature, and closer to path-specific than site-specific values. However, our data have insufficient azimuthal coverage for single-path analysis. Certain stations have higher ground-motion variability, possibly due to topography, basin edge or downgoing wave effects. Sensitivity checks show that 3 recordings per event is a sufficient data selection criterion, however, one of the dataset’s advantages is the large number of recordings per station (9-90) that yields good site term estimates. We examine uncertainty components binning our data with magnitude from 0.01 to 2 s; at smaller magnitudes, τ decreases and φSS increases, possibly due to κ and source-site trade-offs Finally, we investigate the alternative approach of computing φSS using existing GMPEs instead of creating an ad hoc local GMPE. This is important where data are insufficient to create one, or when site-specific PSHA is performed. We show that global GMPEs may still capture φSS, provided that: 1. the magnitude scaling errors are accommodated by the event terms; 2. there are no distance scaling errors (use of a regionally applicable model). Site terms (φS2S) computed by different global GMPEs (using different site-proxies) vary significantly, especially for hard-rock sites. This indicates that GMPEs may be poorly constrained where they are sometimes most needed, i.e. for hard rock

What we talk about when we talk about "global mindset": managerial cognition in multinational corporations

Recent developments in the global economy and in multinational corporations have placed significant emphasis on the cognitive orientations of managers, giving rise to a number of concepts such as “global mindset” that are presumed to be associated with the effective management of multinational corporations (MNCs). This paper reviews the literature on global mindset and clarifies some of the conceptual confusion surrounding the construct. We identify common themes across writers, suggesting that the majority of studies fall into one of three research perspectives: cultural, strategic, and multidimensional. We also identify two constructs from the social sciences that underlie the perspectives found in the literature: cosmopolitanism and cognitive complexity and use these two constructs to develop an integrative theoretical framework of global mindset. We then provide a critical assessment of the field of global mindset and suggest directions for future theoretical and empirical research

Barriers to adequate follow-up during adjuvant therapy may be important factors in the worse outcome for Black women after breast cancer treatment

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Black women appear to have worse outcome after diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer. It is still unclear if this is because Black race is more often associated with known negative prognostic indicators or if it is an independent prognostic factor. To study this, we analyzed a patient cohort from an urban university medical center where these women made up the majority of the patient population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected database of breast cancer patients seen from May 1999 to June 2006. Time to recurrence and survival were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method, with statistical analysis by chi-square, log rank testing, and the Cox regression model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>265 female patients were diagnosed with breast cancer during the time period. Fifty patients (19%) had pure DCIS and 215 patients (81%) had invasive disease. Racial and ethnic composition of the entire cohort was as follows: Black (N = 150, 56.6%), Hispanic (N = 83, 31.3%), Caucasian (N = 26, 9.8%), Asian (N = 4, 1.5%), and Arabic (N = 2, 0.8%). For patients with invasive disease, independent predictors of poor disease-free survival included tumor size, node-positivity, incompletion of adjuvant therapy, and Black race. Tumor size, node-positivity, and Black race were independently associated with disease-specific overall survival.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Worse outcome among Black women appears to be independent of the usual predictors of survival. Further investigation is necessary to identify the cause of this survival disparity. Barriers to completion of standard post-operative treatment regimens may be especially important in this regard.</p

Mechanisms and consequences of TGF-ß overexpression by podocytes in progressive podocyte disease

In patients with progressive podocyte disease, such as focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) and membranous nephropathy, upregulation of transforming growth factor-ß (TGF-ß) is observed in podocytes. Mechanical pressure or biomechanical strain in podocytopathies may cause overexpression of TGF-ß and angiotensin II (Ang II). Oxidative stress induced by Ang II may activate the latent TGF-ß, which then activates Smads and Ras/extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) signaling pathways in podocytes. Enhanced TGF-ß activity in podocytes may lead to thickening of the glomerular basement membrane (GBM) by overproduction of GBM proteins and impaired GBM degradation in podocyte disease. It may also lead to podocyte apoptosis and detachment from the GBM, and epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) of podocytes, initiating the development of glomerulosclerosis. Furthermore, activated TGF-ß/Smad signaling by podocytes may induce connective tissue growth factor and vascular endothelial growth factor overexpression, which could act as a paracrine effector mechanism on mesangial cells to stimulate mesangial matrix synthesis. In proliferative podocytopathies, such as cellular or collapsing FSGS, TGF-ß-induced ERK activation may play a role in podocyte proliferation, possibly via TGF-ß-induced EMT of podocytes. Collectively, these data bring new mechanistic insights into our understanding of the TGF-ß overexpression by podocytes in progressive podocyte disease